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 608 
 WTNT41 KNHC 181436
 TCDAT1
 
 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
 1100 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014
 
 A 0906 UTC SSMIS pass showed that the eyewall of Edouard had opened
 up on the southwest side and the circulation was becoming somewhat
 tilted with height. This tilt was confirmed by an ASCAT pass around
 1230 UTC. The coverage of cold convective tops is gradually
 decreasing, and the initial intensity is lowered to 70 kt based on a
 blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB,
 and UW-CIMSS. Given that the cyclone will be moving over cooler
 waters and experiencing increased vertical wind shear, steady
 weakening is expected during the next 24 hours. Edouard should lose
 its deep convection in 36 to 48 hours and become post-tropical by
 that time. Global model fields show the circulation of Edouard
 dissipating by the end of the period, and that is reflected in the
 official forecast. The new NHC intensity forecast is an update of
 the previous one and is close to the IVCN multi-model consensus.
 
 The initial motion estimate is now eastward, or 085/22, as Edouard
 is currently located north of a mid-level ridge over the central
 Atlantic. The cyclone will move eastward and then southeastward
 around this ridge during the next 72 hours, and then turn southward
 by day 4. Most of the track model guidance remains in good agreement
 on this scenario, with the continued exception of the GFDL and
 UKMET which show a more northeastward and southward motion,
 respectively. The new NHC track forecast is close to a consensus of
 the GFS and ECMWF models, and is similar to the previous advisory.
 
 The initial wind radii were modified based on data from the
 above-mentioned ASCAT pass.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  18/1500Z 39.9N  42.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
  12H  19/0000Z 40.1N  39.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  19/1200Z 39.9N  37.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  20/0000Z 40.0N  36.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  20/1200Z 40.0N  34.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  72H  21/1200Z 37.5N  30.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  22/1200Z 33.0N  30.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan
 
 
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