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 009 
 WTNT41 KNHC 180849
 TCDAT1
 
 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
 500 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014
 
 An 0426 UTC GCOM microwave pass showed that Edouard has a small,
 solid inner eyewall surrounded by a thinning outer ring of deep
 convection.  The infrared satellite presentation has not changed
 appreciably from 6 hours ago, and the initial intensity is held at
 75 kt based on a blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the
 UW-CIMSS ADT.  Edouard is over 24C water, but there is still some
 atmospheric instability available for the hurricane to maintain its
 convective structure.  However, the SHIPS guidance shows the
 instability decreasing and westerly vertical shear increasing over
 30 kt during the next 24 hours, so Edouard is expected to begin a
 faster weakening trend later today.  The hostile conditions should
 cause Edouard to lose all of its deep convection in 36-48 hours,
 and the official forecast still calls for the system to be a
 post-tropical low in 48 hours and dissipate by day 5.  The NHC
 forecast is just an update of the previous one and closely follows
 the ICON intensity consensus.
 
 The hurricane appears to be slowing down just a little bit and has
 an initial motion of 065/24 kt.  Edouard is moving around the
 northern side of a mid-tropospheric high located over the central
 Atlantic, and it is forecast to turn eastward and then southeastward
 around this feature during the next 3 days.  Most of the track
 models are in good agreement on this scenario.  The two main
 outliers are the UKMET, which shows a sharper southward turn after
 12 hours, and the GFDL, which shows Edouard continuing to race
 northeastward ahead of a cold front.  The updated NHC track forecast
 is close to a consensus of the GFS, ECMWF, and HWRF models and is a
 little south and west of the previous forecast after 48 hours.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  18/0900Z 39.6N  45.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
  12H  18/1800Z 40.1N  41.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  19/0600Z 39.9N  38.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  19/1800Z 39.7N  37.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  20/0600Z 39.7N  35.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  72H  21/0600Z 38.5N  31.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  96H  22/0600Z 35.0N  30.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 120H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Berg
 
 
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