661 
 WTNT41 KNHC 180234
 TCDAT1
 
 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
 1100 PM AST WED SEP 17 2014
 
 Edouard is maintaining its strength this evening despite being over
 cool waters.  Satellite pictures indicate that deep convection in
 the inner-core region has increased a little during the past few
 hours, and microwave images continue to show concentric eyewalls.
 The initial intensity is held at 75 kt, which is in agreement with
 the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.  Although the
 hurricane has not yet weakened, very cold water along the
 expected track along with a substantial increase in westerly shear
 should cause a steady weakening during the next couple of days.  The
 NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and
 lies in the middle of the guidance envelope.  Post-tropical
 transition is expected to occur in 36 to 48 hours, when Edouard is
 forecast to be over waters around 23 C.
 
 The hurricane is racing to the east-northeast in the strong
 mid-latitude flow across the central Atlantic, with the initial
 motion estimated to be 060/26.  A turn to the east and then
 southeast with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the
 next few days when the cyclone is steered by the weaker flow
 between a subtropical ridge to its southwest and a deep-layer low
 to its northeast.  The track, intensity, and wind radii forecast
 during the post-tropical phase is close to the guidance provided by
 NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  18/0300Z 38.7N  48.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
  12H  18/1200Z 39.8N  44.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  19/0000Z 40.2N  40.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  19/1200Z 40.1N  38.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  20/0000Z 40.0N  36.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  72H  21/0000Z 39.4N  32.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  96H  22/0000Z 37.0N  29.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 120H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi