168 
 WTNT41 KNHC 172035
 TCDAT1
 
 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
 500 PM AST WED SEP 17 2014
 
 An earlier NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft research mission showed a
 maximum 700 mb flight-level wind of 91 kt, with peak SFMR winds of
 71 kt. Since the plane left a few hours ago, the satellite
 appearance of Edouard has become less organized, with warming
 convection in the eyewall and a cooling eye.  The initial intensity
 is set to 75 kt for this advisory, a blend of the SFMR data and the
 higher satellite classifications.  A combination of cooling waters
 and increasing shear should keep Edouard on a general weakening
 trend throughout the 120-hour period.  Post-tropical transition is
 indicated in the latest NHC forecast at 48 hours due to Edouard
 moving over cold waters with strong shear. The cyclone is expected
 to dissipate by day 5, which is in good agreement with almost all of
 the global models.
 
 Edouard is moving faster to the northeast, now 055/23.  A gradual
 turn to the east is expected, along with some decrease in forward
 speed by late tomorrow, due to Edouard moving becoming more steered
 by the subtropical ridge rather than faster mid-latitude westerlies.
 Edouard (or its remnants) should turn southeastward in a few days
 while it moves around a large trough over the eastern Atlantic.
 Although the general synoptic pattern has not changed, the track
 guidance has taken a notable eastward shift in this cycle,
 apparently due to the weaker low-level circulation decoupling from
 the mid-level northerly flow.  Consequently, the latest forecast is
 shifted quite a bit to the east at day 4, although there probably
 won't be much of Edouard by that point.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  17/2100Z 37.8N  51.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
  12H  18/0600Z 39.4N  47.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  18/1800Z 40.4N  42.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  19/0600Z 40.2N  39.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  19/1800Z 40.0N  38.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  72H  20/1800Z 40.0N  34.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  96H  21/1800Z 38.0N  31.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 120H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake