059 
 WTNT41 KNHC 160845
 TCDAT1
 
 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
 500 AM AST TUE SEP 16 2014
 
 Convective cloud tops within Edouard's eyewall have occasionally
 been as cold as about -75C, but the eye has actually cooled during
 the past few hours.  In addition, an 0614 UTC TRMM pass showed that
 the hurricane's eyewall is partially open on the north side.  The
 Dvorak final-T estimate from TAFB increased to T5.5/102 kt but
 decreased to T4.5/77 kt from SAB, while the CIMSS ADT is holding
 steady near T5.6/105 kt.  Due to the discrepancy between the various
 estimates, the initial intensity is being held at 95 kt.
 
 Analyses from UW-CIMSS and SHIPS diagnostics indicate that about 15
 kt of southeasterly shear continues to affect Edouard.  The shear
 is expected to decrease between 12-36 hours, and since waters will
 be warmer than 26C during that period, the hurricane still has a
 chance to strengthen a bit.  The intensity guidance has decreased,
 with none of the usual hurricane models explicitly showing Edouard
 reaching major hurricane strength.  However, given the improving
 environment, the NHC intensity forecast still allows for the
 possibility of a major hurricane in the next 12-24 hours.  After
 that time, Edouard is expected to weaken quickly due to colder water
 and increasing vertical shear.  The forecast continues to show
 Edouard becoming post-tropical by day 4, but the cyclone may begin
 to struggle to maintain organized deep convection as early as day 3
 while it's over 22C water.
 
 The initial motion is north-northwestward, or 340/11 kt.  Edouard
 is located to the west of a mid-tropospheric high and will turn
 northward and northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies during
 the next 24-36 hours.  An eastward acceleration is expected by 48
 hours, but then the cyclone is forecast to turn southeastward and
 slow down on days 4 and 5 when it approaches the west side of a
 deep-layer low between Portugal and the Azores.  The track guidance
 continues to be tightly clustered, and the updated NHC forecast
 has only been nudged slightly westward during the first 48 hours to
 be closer to the multi-model consensus TVCA.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  16/0900Z 30.2N  57.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
  12H  16/1800Z 31.7N  57.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
  24H  17/0600Z 34.3N  56.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
  36H  17/1800Z 37.1N  52.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
  48H  18/0600Z 39.5N  48.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
  72H  19/0600Z 41.3N  39.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  20/0600Z 40.5N  35.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 120H  21/0600Z 38.5N  32.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
 $$
 Forecaster Berg