127 
 WTNT41 KNHC 132040
 TCDAT1
 
 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
 500 PM AST SAT SEP 13 2014
 
 Convection associated with Edouard has blossomed this afternoon. The
 cloud pattern has become more symmetric, and the outflow is fair
 toward the northwest. The initial intensity has been increased to 50
 kt based on Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The low shear, in
 combination with a pool of anomalously warm waters ahead of Edouard,
 should result in strengthening, and the NHC forecast calls for the
 cyclone to become a hurricane on Sunday or early on Monday. The
 intensity forecast is very close to the consensus ICON.
 
 The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest or
 310 degrees at 11 kt.  The cyclone's motion is being controlled by
 the subtropical ridge to its north. It appears that this ridge
 is a little stronger, and that pattern supports keeping Edouard on
 a west-northwestward to northwestward course for the next 2 to 3
 days. After that time, the subtropical ridge will weaken and move
 eastward, allowing Edouard to turn north and then recurve into the
 mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC forecast is close to the multi-
 model consensus TVCA, which has been very consistent in turning the
 cyclone northward over the central Atlantic for the past several
 model cycles.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  13/2100Z 22.5N  47.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  14/0600Z 23.7N  49.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  14/1800Z 25.0N  51.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  15/0600Z 26.4N  53.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  15/1800Z 27.6N  55.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
  72H  16/1800Z 31.0N  57.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
  96H  17/1800Z 36.0N  54.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 120H  18/1800Z 42.0N  45.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila