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 801 
 WTNT41 KNHC 130255
 TCDAT1
 
 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 12 2014
 
 Edouard's cloud pattern has changed little in organization since
 the last advisory.  Moderately strong south-southwesterly shear is
 still affecting the cyclone, as evidenced by the center location
 near the southern edge of the main convective mass in microwave
 imagery.  However, convective cloud top temperatures have cooled
 some, and the upper-level outflow has expanded to the north and
 west. Dvorak intensity estimates range from T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and
 SAB, while an earlier AMSU estimate suggested an intensity of around
 45 kt. A blend of these data yields an initial intensity of 40 kt.
 
 The center of Edouard was relocated a bit to the south and west
 based on a 2113 UTC Windsat overpass.  That pass, in combination
 with previous fixes, suggests an initial motion estimate of 295/11.
 Edouard should move generally west-northwestward for the next few
 days under the influence of a mid-level ridge over the central
 Atlantic. In about 3 days, the cyclone should reach a significant
 break in the the same ridge and gradually turn northward between
 55-58w with some decrease in forward speed.  The cyclone should
 accelerate northeastward once it becomes embedded in deep-layer
 westerly flow over the north Atlantic toward the end of the forecast
 period. The NHC track forecast is shifted to the left of the
 previous one through 72 hours due to the the center relocation and a
 westward trend in the track guidance this cycle.  The track forecast
 lies on the right side of the guidance envelope through 3 days and
 is near the center of it after that, close to the multi-model
 consensus.
 
 Edouard has been moving through a sheared environment over the
 tropical Atlantic, characterized by strong low- to mid-level
 easterly trades and southerly flow aloft. Global models generally
 forecast a reduction of this shear after another day or so, when
 upper-level anticyclonic flow develops over the storm.  In a couple
 of days, upper-level troughs to the east and west of Edouard could
 allow the formation of dual outflow channels while the cyclone is
 over sea surface temperatures around 30 deg C.  This should allow
 intensification to hurricane strength.  After recurvature, the storm
 motion and shear vectors are likely to align which should allow
 Edouard to maintain its intensity until it encounters increasing
 shear and cooler waters by day 5. The NHC wind speed forecast is
 nearly unchanged relative to the previous, except to show a slightly
 higher peak intensity in agreement with the latest guidance.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  13/0300Z 19.5N  45.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  13/1200Z 20.4N  46.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  14/0000Z 21.8N  48.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  14/1200Z 23.1N  50.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  15/0000Z 24.6N  53.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  16/0000Z 27.9N  56.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
  96H  17/0000Z 32.2N  56.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 120H  18/0000Z 37.0N  52.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Kimberlain
 
 
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