819 
 WTNT41 KNHC 111439
 TCDAT1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
 1100 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2014
 
 Satellite imagery and a recent ASCAT-B overpass indicate that the
 low pressure area over the eastern Atlantic has a well-defined
 circulation and organized convective banding near the center.  Thus,
 advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Six.  The
 initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on the scatterometer data
 and the satellite intensity estimate from TAFB.
 
 The initial motion is 310/12.  A low-/mid-level ridge north of the
 cyclone should steer it generally west-northwestward to
 northwestward for the next 3-4 days.  After that, the track
 guidance forecasts the system to turn generally northward between
 the ridge and a large mid-/upper-level low south of Bermuda.  There
 is a fair amount of spread in the guidance on where this turn should
 occur, with the extremes being the Canadian model on the east near
 45W and the ECMWF model on the west near 55W.  The official forecast
 lies close to the model consensus in expecting a more northerly
 motion between 51W-53W.  The forecast track keeps the cyclone well
 away from land for the next 5 days.
 
 The depression is currently in an environment of light vertical
 wind shear.  The large-scale models forecast some increase
 in southerly shear after 24 hours, which should persist through the
 end of the forecast period.  Despite the shear, the intensity
 guidance forecasts slow but steady strengthening.  The official
 forecast follows this scenario and is a blend of the SHIPS model and
 the intensity consensus.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  11/1500Z 16.2N  37.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  12/0000Z 17.1N  38.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  12/1200Z 18.2N  40.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  13/0000Z 19.3N  42.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  13/1200Z 20.5N  44.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  14/1200Z 23.5N  48.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  96H  15/1200Z 26.5N  51.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 120H  16/1200Z 29.0N  53.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven