644 
 WTNT45 KNHC 050259
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052008
 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 04 2008
  
 EDOUARD HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN ORGANIZATION IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
 DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AS A COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY
 VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND POSSIBLE DRY AND ENTRAINMENT HAS CONFINED
 THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS.  HOWEVER...
 THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL INTENSE CONVECTIVE BURSTS NEAR THE
 CENTER...AND THE WSR-88D DOPPLER AT LAKE CHARLES IS SHOWING WINDS
 OF 60-65 KT AT 10000 FT NORTH OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON THIS...THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT.
  
 SOME REFORMATION OF THE CENTER OCCURRED BETWEEN 18Z-00Z...AND SINCE
 THAT ENDED THERE HAS BEEN A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION.  THE INITIAL
 MOTION IS NOW 290/6.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN
 THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  EDOUARD SHOULD MOVE WEST-
 NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
 SOUTHERN PLAINS UNTIL LANDFALL AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OVER
 TEXAS...AS SHOWN BY ALL THE LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE.  THE NEW FORECAST
 TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...CALLING FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
 MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEFORE LANDFALL.  THE
 NEW TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND
 IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED
 THAT WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS
 COAST...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK WOULD BRING THE
 CENTER INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.
  
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC.  THE SHEAR...
 POSSIBLE DRY AIR...AND RELATIVE LACK OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
 ARGUE AGAINST RAPID STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL.  HOWEVER...THE
 CONVECTIVE BURSTS HAVE BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME
 STRENGTHENING...AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH BEFORE
 LANDFALL.  NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE NOW CALLS FOR EDOUARD TO
 BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
 CONTINUE TO CALL FOR LANDFALL AS A 55-60 KT TROPICAL STORM. 
 HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THE STORM COULD BECOME A
 HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.  IT'S IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THERE
 IS VERY LITTLE PRACTICAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A VERY STRONG TROPICAL
 STORM AND A LOW-END HURRICANE.  AFTER LANDFALL...EDOUARD SHOULD
 WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      05/0300Z 28.7N  92.2W    50 KT
  12HR VT     05/1200Z 29.1N  93.5W    55 KT
  24HR VT     06/0000Z 30.0N  95.6W    45 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     06/1200Z 31.1N  97.9W    30 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     07/0000Z 32.0N  99.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN