686 
 WTNT45 KNHC 052059
 TCDAT5
 
 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
 400 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016
 
 An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Earl this
 afternoon found a maximum 850-mb-flight-level wind of 59 kt and a
 peak SFMR wind of 49 kt in the eastern semicircle. Based on these
 data, the initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt. Additional
 aircraft SFMR wind data and recent ASCAT surface wind data also
 indicate that the 34-kt wind radii have increased outward
 considerably in the northern semicircle, which has required a
 northward expansion of the tropical storm warning area along the
 east coast of Mexico.
 
 Earl is moving westward or 275/07 kt. A general westward motion is
 forecast to continue until landfall occurs in about 12 hours or so.
 After that time, a motion toward the west or west-southwest is
 expected as Earl's center interacts with the high terrain of the
 Sierra Madre Oriental mountains. There has not been any significant
 change in the track guidance, so the new official forecast track is
 close to the previous one and the TVCN consensus model.
 
 Little change in intensity is anticipated before landfall occurs
 later tonight. However, the intensity forecasts at 12 and 24 hours
 had to be increased based on Earl's stronger initial intensity. Due
 to the large 34-kt wind radii, it is possible that Earl could still
 be a tropical storm when it is located inland at 24 hours.
 
 The main threat from Earl continues to be heavy rains that could
 cause flash floods and mudslides across a large portion of Central
 America and southeastern Mexico.  The Mexican Weather Service (SMN)
 has relayed several reports of rainfall totals already exceeding 5-7
 inches (125-180 mm) as of 8 am EDT/1200 UTC this morning.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  05/2100Z 18.8N  95.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  06/0600Z 18.8N  96.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
  24H  06/1800Z 18.8N  96.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  36H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart