262 
 WTNT45 KNHC 050837
 TCDAT5
 
 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
 400 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016
 
 Satellite imagery, along with Mexican surface and radar data, shows
 that the center of Earl is now near the southern coast of the Bay
 of Campeche west-southwest of Ciudad del Carmen.  The associated
 convection is poorly organized, although radar data shows bands of
 low-topped showers that are not currently apparent in infrared
 imagery.  There are no recent observations near the area of maximum
 winds over the Bay of Campeche, so the initial intensity is held at
 35 kt based on continuity from the previous advisory.
 
 The initial motion is 285/10.  A large mid-level ridge near the
 northern Gulf of Mexico coast should lead to a continued
 west-northwestward to westward motion for the next 48 hours or so,
 with this motion taking the center of Earl along the coast of the
 Bay of Campeche into mainland Mexico.  The new forecast track is
 similar to the previous track and lies just north of the various
 consensus models.
 
 The center of Earl should emerge over the Bay of Campeche later
 today before final landfall in mainland Mexico.  However,
 significant strengthening is not expected due to the proximity to
 land and the current level of disorganization.  After landfall,
 Earl should weaken and dissipate over the mountains of central and
 eastern Mexico.
 
 The main threat from Earl continues to be heavy rains over a
 large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico, and the
 combination of Earl with a broader-scale low-level cyclonic gyre
 over the area enhances the rainfall potential.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  05/0900Z 18.4N  92.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  05/1800Z 18.5N  94.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
  24H  06/0600Z 18.7N  95.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
  36H  06/1800Z 18.9N  97.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
  48H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven