560 
 WTNT45 KNHC 040253
 TCDAT5
 
 HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
 1000 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016
 
 Earl has been under close surveillance by Air Force and NOAA
 Hurricane Hunter planes and the Belize Meteorological Service radar
 this evening.  The Air Force Hurricane Hunters found peak 700 mb
 flight-level winds of 72 kt which converts to a surface wind of 65
 kt, and this is used for the advisory intensity.  Belize radar
 imagery shows that the eyewall has been fluctuating between an open
 and closed structure over the past several hours.  There is little
 time left for Earl to strengthen before the center reaches the
 coast, and no significant intensification is anticipated before
 landfall.  A steady weakening trend will commence after the
 tropical cyclone moves inland.  Based on the latest track
 guidance, the center is forecast to only barely emerge into the
 extreme southern Bay of Campeche on Thursday, and this should limit
 reintensification at that time.  Earl is expected to become a
 remnant low and dissipate over the high mountains of south-central
 Mexico by the weekend or sooner.
 
 Earl continues to move slightly north of due west or 280/13 kt.
 The cyclone remains embedded in a well-defined steering flow to the
 south of a large and slow-moving mid-tropospheric high pressure
 system.  Little change has been made to the previous official
 forecast track and the current NHC forecast remains close to the
 multi-model consensus.
 
 After landfall, the biggest concern with Earl is rainfall.  Global
 models depict the system becoming enveloped within a much
 larger-scale cyclonic gyre that will cover much of southern Mexico
 in a couple of days.  This weather pattern will likely lead to
 copious rains, with isolated precipitation totals of 18 inches
 possible.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  04/0300Z 17.4N  87.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  04/1200Z 17.7N  89.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
  24H  05/0000Z 18.2N  91.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  36H  05/1200Z 18.5N  93.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
  48H  06/0000Z 18.8N  95.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
  72H  07/0000Z 20.0N  98.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
  96H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch