390 
 WTNT45 KNHC 030849
 TCDAT5
 
 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
 500 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2016
 
 Microwave imagery since 01Z indicates that Earl has formed a
 mid-level eye, and ASCAT data near 02Z and 03Z suggests that the
 circulation center has reformed to the south of the previous
 forecast track underneath the eye feature.  Satellite intensity
 estimates from TAFB and SAB are 55 kt, and that will be the initial
 intensity.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to
 investigate Earl.
 
 The latest satellite imagery suggests that the track excursion
 caused by the reformation is over, and that Earl is resuming a
 westward motion of 280/12.  A large subtropical ridge centered over
 the southern United States should steer Earl generally westward to
 west-northwestward for the next 3-4 days, with the cyclone moving
 near the Bay Islands of Honduras in 12-18 hours, near or over
 Belize and the southern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in about 24
 hours, and over southeastern Mexico and possibly the Bay of
 Campeche thereafter.  The new forecast track is similar to, but
 south of, the previous track based mainly on the initial position,
 and it lies a little to the south of the various consensus models.
 
 Earl is expected to remain in a light to moderate vertical wind
 shear environment over very warm sea surface temperatures until
 landfall.  This combination should allow continued strengthening,
 and the forecast intensity at landfall has been increased slightly
 from the previous advisory based on the SHIPS and LGEM models.
 Weakening will occur after landfall as the cyclone passes over
 southeastern Mexico. The new forecast track has Earl spending less
 time over the Bay of Campeche than the previous track, so the new
 intensity forecast shows less re-intensification than the previous
 forecast.
 
 A hurricane watch or warning could be required for the Bay Islands
 of Honduras later today due to the new forecast track being closer
 to the islands.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  03/0900Z 16.1N  83.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  03/1800Z 16.5N  85.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  04/0600Z 17.0N  87.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  04/1800Z 17.5N  90.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
  48H  05/0600Z 18.1N  92.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  72H  06/0600Z 19.0N  96.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
  96H  07/0600Z 19.0N 100.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 120H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven