380 
 WTNT45 KNHC 030256
 TCDAT5
 
 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016
 
 Dropsonde data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating
 Earl several hours ago indicated that the central pressure had
 fallen to 996 mb or even lower.  Therefore the intensity was
 increased to 50 kt.  Some higher surface wind speeds were reported
 from the aircraft's SFMR instrument, but these are believed to have
 been rain-inflated. The storm is gradually becoming better
 organized, with some developing banding features seen on satellite
 images. With low shear and SSTs approaching 30 C along the projected
 track, additional strengthening is likely and the NHC forecast calls
 for Earl to become a hurricane prior to landfall.  This is in close
 agreement with the latest SHIPS guidance and only slightly above
 the model consensus.  Weakening will occur after the cyclone makes
 landfall over Yucatan, and the amount of restrengthening in 2-3
 days is highly dependent on how far Earl moves into the southern Bay
 of Campeche.
 
 Based on aircraft and satellite center fixes, the initial motion is
 estimated to be 280/14 kt.  The track forecast reasoning is
 essentially unchanged from the previous advisory package.  A large
 and nearly stationary mid-tropospheric high pressure system
 centered over the southern Great Plains should prevent the tropical
 cyclone from moving significantly northward.  The official forecast
 track is close to the model consensus for the first 48 hours and is
 a blend of the GFS and ECMWF tracks thereafter, with the former
 model's track to the north of the latter one.  This is fairly
 similar to the previous NHC forecast.
 
 The new intensity forecast has necessitated the issuance of a
 hurricane warning for the coast of Belize and a portion of the coast
 of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  03/0300Z 16.4N  83.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  03/1200Z 16.7N  84.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  04/0000Z 17.1N  87.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
  36H  04/1200Z 17.8N  89.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
  48H  05/0000Z 18.4N  91.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  72H  06/0000Z 19.0N  95.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
  96H  07/0000Z 19.5N  99.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 120H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch