224 
 WTNT42 KNHC 041449
 TCDAT2
 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  41
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
 1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010
  
 EARL HAS MAINTAINED SOME CIRCULAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ON SATELLITE
 IMAGERY INDICATING THAT IT IS STILL A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
 HOWEVER...MOST THE RAIN SHIELD HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE
 NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...AND THE WIND FIELD IS
 EXPANDING ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT EARL IS GRADUALLY
 BEGINNING TO ACQUIRE SOME EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  BEST
 ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 60 KNOTS...BASED ON
 SURROUNDING SURFACE DATA. EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL
 IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND SHOULD CONTINUE AS A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL
 CYCLONE FOR 2 TO 3 DAYS.
  
 EARL HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING
 TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OF 035 DEGREES AT 30 KNOTS.  THIS GENERAL
 TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
 DAY OR SO.
  
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      04/1500Z 44.3N  64.5W    60 KT
  12HR VT     05/0000Z 48.0N  60.7W    50 KT...OVER WATER
  24HR VT     05/1200Z 52.5N  56.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  36HR VT     06/0000Z 55.5N  53.5W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48HR VT     06/1200Z 57.0N  54.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72HR VT     07/1200Z 56.0N  53.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96HR VT     08/1200Z...ABSORBED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA