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 625 
 WTNT42 KNHC 011455
 TCDAT2
 HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2010
  
 
 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOW THAT EARL HAS A DISTINCT
 EYE SURROUNDED BY MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION. A BLEND BETWEEN
 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE
 PLANE SUGGEST THAT WINDS ARE STILL 110 KNOTS.  GIVEN THE CURRENT
 SATELLITE PRESENTATION...WHICH SHOWS A DECREASE IN THE SHEAR SINCE
 YESTERDAY AND THE WARM OCEAN ALONG THE TRACK OF EARL...THERE IS A
 POSSIBILITY THAT THE HURRICANE COULD REGAIN SOME INTENSITY.
 HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL MODEL 
 SHOWS A STEADY STATE OR GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
 TWO...AND THIS TREND IS FOLLOWED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. AFTER
 48 HOURS...EARL SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND
 ENCOUNTER INCREASING SHEAR RESULTING IN WEAKENING. BY DAY 5 THE
 HURRICANE SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL
 CYCLONE WELL NORTH OF CANADA.      
 
 SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE
 INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS.
 THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN STEERING EARL TOWARD THE
 NORTHWEST IS ALREADY SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND LATER TODAY...EARL
 SHOULD BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE TURNING GRADUALLY
 NORTHWARD. IN 36 HOURS OR SO...THE HURRICANE WILL ENCOUNTER THE
 BASE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND SHOULD BEGIN TO RECURVE OR
 TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE
 SOLUTION UNANIMOUSLY PROVIDED BY TRACK MODELS...WHICH HAVE EARL
 PASSING TO THE EAST BUT NOT FAR FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
 CAROLINA BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS. ONLY A SMALL WESTWARD DEVIATION
 TO THE TRACK TO THE WEST WOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE 
 TO THE COAST.
 
 GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK AND THE LARGE WIND RADII ASSOCIATED WITH A
 EARL...A HURRICANE WARNING WAS REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH
 CAROLINA COAST.  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      01/1500Z 25.1N  72.1W   110 KT
  12HR VT     02/0000Z 27.0N  73.7W   110 KT
  24HR VT     02/1200Z 29.8N  75.0W   110 KT
  36HR VT     03/0000Z 32.8N  75.2W   110 KT
  48HR VT     03/1200Z 36.0N  73.6W   100 KT
  72HR VT     04/1200Z 44.0N  66.0W    70 KT
  96HR VT     05/1200Z 55.0N  60.0W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120HR VT     06/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 
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