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 802 
 WTNT25 KNHC 151441
 TCMAT5
 TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052004
 1500Z SUN AUG 15 2004
  
 AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED
 THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BARBADOS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...THE
 GRENADINES...ST.VINCENT...AND ST. LUCIA.  INTERESTS AROUND THE
 EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
  
 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N  62.0W AT 15/1500Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  24 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
 34 KT....... 75NE  25SE  25SW  75NW.
 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  25SE  25SW  75NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N  62.0W AT 15/1500Z
 AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N  60.8W
  
 FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 12.9N  65.3W
 MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 34 KT... 75NE  25SE  25SW  75NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 14.0N  69.5W
 MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
 34 KT... 75NE  25SE  25SW  75NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.3N  73.4W
 MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 50 KT... 25NE  15SE  15SW  25NW.
 34 KT... 75NE  30SE  30SW  75NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.5N  76.9W
 MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
 34 KT... 75NE  30SE  30SW  75NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.5N  82.5W
 MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
 34 KT... 75NE  30SE  30SW  75NW.
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 21.0N  86.5W
 MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 24.0N  89.0W
 MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N  62.0W
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
  
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
  
 $$
 
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