853 
 WTNT45 KNHC 141450
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004
 
 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION OF
 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. 
 CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELONGATED ALONG A
 WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST AXIS.   HOWEVER DVORAK INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE IS CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM
 INTENSITY AND CIRRUS MOTIONS SHOW PROMINENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO
 THE NORTH AND SOUTH.  THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE
 FOR STRENGTHENING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALONG THE LINES OF
 THE SHIPS GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES A STEADY INCREASE IN INTENSITY.
 
 ALTHOUGH THE CENTER FIXES ARE SOMEWHAT SCATTERED...INITIAL MOTION
 APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE FASTER...285/20.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
 EMBEDDED IN A DEEP EASTERLY CURRENT SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
 AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS RIDGE
 WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
 MOTION IS THEREFORE INDICATED OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
 TRACK...BUT IS LARGELY AN UPDATE.
  
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      14/1500Z 10.4N  52.2W    30 KT
  12HR VT     15/0000Z 11.5N  55.1W    40 KT
  24HR VT     15/1200Z 12.9N  58.8W    50 KT
  36HR VT     16/0000Z 14.2N  62.4W    60 KT
  48HR VT     16/1200Z 15.5N  66.0W    65 KT
  72HR VT     17/1200Z 17.5N  73.0W    70 KT
  96HR VT     18/1200Z 19.0N  79.0W    75 KT
 120HR VT     19/1200Z 20.5N  84.0W    80 KT
  
 $$