800 
 WTNT45 KNHC 140235
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004
  
 THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING.  A
 QUIKSCAT PASS AT 21Z...AS WELL AS DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...SUGGEST
 THAT THE WINDS ARE PERHAPS A LITTLE LOWER THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED.
 NEVERTHELESS...THE SYSTEM HAS A GOOD OUTFLOW PATTERN...AND...OTHER
 THAN THE RAPID FORWARD MOTION...ALL FACTORS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
 STRENGTHENING.  BOTH THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE BRING THE
 DEPRESSION TO ABOUT 90 KT OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.  I HAVE ELECTED
 TO GO A LITTLE BELOW THIS GUIDANCE BASED ON THE POOR SATELLITE AND
 QUIKSCAT PRESENTATION AND THE RAPID INITIAL MOTION.
 
 THE AFOREMENTIONED INITIAL MOTION IS 280/18.  THE DEPRESSION IS
 EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED IN A DEEP EASTERLY CURRENT SOUTH OF THE
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MOTION IS THEREFORE
 INDICATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 LARGELY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT
 WITH THE GFDL.
 
 WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
 EARLY SATURDAY.
  
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      14/0300Z  9.4N  48.3W    25 KT
  12HR VT     14/1200Z 10.0N  51.0W    30 KT
  24HR VT     15/0000Z 11.0N  54.5W    35 KT
  36HR VT     15/1200Z 12.1N  58.0W    45 KT
  48HR VT     16/0000Z 13.2N  61.3W    55 KT
  72HR VT     17/0000Z 15.0N  67.0W    65 KT
  96HR VT     18/0000Z 17.0N  73.0W    75 KT
 120HR VT     19/0000Z 20.0N  78.5W    80 KT
  
  
 $$