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 051 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 041433
 TCDEP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014
 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 04 2014
 
 Douglas may well have weakened to a tropical depression since the
 time of an overnight ASCAT pass, given that deep convection
 associated with the storm has shrunk in size and become displaced
 well southeast of the center.  However, we'll hold Douglas as a
 tropical storm a while longer pending a more definitive indication
 of weakening. With some northwesterly shear and a forecast track
 that takes Douglas over even cooler waters, the cyclone should
 degenerate into a remnant low soon.  The NHC intensity forecast is
 the same as the previous one and shows remnant low status within 24
 hours.
 
 The initial motion is 310/05. A building low- to mid-level ridge
 over the western United States should steer the storm northwestward
 and then west-northwestward at a slightly faster forward speed until
 dissipation in about 72 hours.  This is in agreement with the latest
 model guidance and just a bit slower than the multi-model consensus.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  04/1500Z 21.6N 118.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  05/0000Z 22.1N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  05/1200Z 23.0N 120.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  06/0000Z 23.8N 121.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  06/1200Z 24.6N 122.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  07/1200Z 25.9N 125.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Kimberlain
 
 
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