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 414 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 040832
 TCDEP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014
 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 04 2014
 
 Douglas consists of a tight swirl of low clouds accompanied by
 a small curved band of deep convection to the east of the center.
 NHC had estimated that the peak winds were 30 knots, but a
 recent ASCAT-B pass shows numerous 35-kt wind vectors associated
 with the circulation of Douglas. The initial intensity has thus been
 adjusted to 35 knots. This does not mean that Douglas has
 restrengthened. Instead, the lack of data earlier led us to a lower
 wind estimate. Nevertheless, the cyclone is over 24 degree Celsius
 water and weakening to a remnant low in a day or so is still
 anticipated.
 
 The initial motion is toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 5
 knots. This general motion is expected to continue during the next
 24 to 48 hours with a gradual turn to west as the subtropical ridge
 to the north of the cyclone builds westward.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  04/0900Z 21.3N 117.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  04/1800Z 21.8N 118.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  05/0600Z 22.4N 119.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  05/1800Z 23.5N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  06/0600Z 24.0N 121.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  07/0600Z 25.5N 124.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila
 
 
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