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 040 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 030237
 TCDEP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014
 800 PM PDT WED JUL 02 2014
 
 Conventional satellite imagery shows that a convective band with
 -70C cloud top temperatures has persisted over the northeast
 portion of the cyclone.  A compromise of the Dvorak satellite
 intensity estimates from TAFB/SAB and the CIMSS ADT CI supports
 holding the initial intensity at 35 kt for this advisory. An
 intruding dry and stable thermodynamic air mass and decreasing
 sea surface temperatures of less than 25C should induce weakening
 through the forecast period.  The cyclone is forecast to
 become a depression on Thursday and weaken further into a remant low
 near the 36 hr period.
 
 Douglas continues to move north-northwestward, or 330/2 kt, within
 the weak steering flow produced by a mid-level ridge extending
 across the eastern Pacific from the southwest United States.  A
 turn toward the northwest is forecast on Thursday with a slight
 increase in forward speed as the aforementioned ridge gradually
 strengthens.  By the 36 hour period, Douglas is expected to move
 west-northwestward within the low-level tradewind flow as a
 remnant low and continue on this general track through the
 remainder of the forecast.  The official NHC forecast track is
 slightly to the right of the previous advisory and is close to the
 TVCE multi-model consensus.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  03/0300Z 20.2N 116.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  03/1200Z 20.4N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  04/0000Z 20.8N 117.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  04/1200Z 21.3N 117.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  05/0000Z 21.9N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  06/0000Z 23.2N 122.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  07/0000Z 24.0N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Roberts
 
 
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