140 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 020256
 TCDEP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014
 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014
 
 Douglas has maintained a tight curved band of deep convection near
 its center, primarily within the western semicircle.  Consequently,
 the TAFB and SAB Dvorak CI numbers have remained the same and thus
 the intensity is kept at 40 kt.  While Douglas should remain under
 light vertical shear for the next few days, the gradually cooling
 waters and drier stable air that the cyclone will encounter
 should cause the convection to diminish and, in about 36-48 hours,
 eventually to cease.  The large size of Douglas suggests that it
 will wind down gradually, even if the convection dissipates quicker
 than expected. The intensity forecast is based upon the tight
 consensus of intensity models and is nearly the same as that in the
 previous advisory.
 
 Douglas has been meandering this evening with a longer-term motion
 of 340/2.  The steering for the cyclone has nearly collapsed as the
 mid-level ridge to the north has weakened due to a short-wave
 trough impinging upon it.  As Douglas becomes a weaker, shallower
 vortex, it should be advected faster toward the west-northwest
 in about 3 days and then westward by day 5 in the low-level
 tradewind flow. The track forecast is based upon the tightly
 clustered multi-model consensus - TVCE - with somewhat less weight
 placed upon the ECMWF model, since this model has had a distinct
 equatorward bias for Douglas. This track prediction is slightly
 poleward of that from the previous advisory.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  02/0300Z 19.4N 115.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  02/1200Z 19.7N 115.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  03/0000Z 20.1N 116.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  03/1200Z 20.4N 116.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  04/0000Z 20.8N 116.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  05/0000Z 22.0N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  06/0000Z 23.0N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  07/0000Z 23.0N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Landsea