159 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 012041
 TCDEP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014
 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014
 
 Since the last advisory, deep convection associated with Douglas has
 consolidated into a long band wrapping around the western and
 southern portions of the broad circulation. As a result, Dvorak
 intensity estimates have increased slightly to 3.0/45 kt from TAFB
 and SAB, while the latest UW-CIMSS ADT CI value is at 2.6/35 kt. A
 blend of these data is used to arrive at an initial intensity of 40
 kt for this advisory. Even though Douglas is in a nearly shear-free
 environment, the cyclone is traversing gradually decreasing sea
 surface temperatures and ingesting somewhat drier and more stable
 air.  Given these negative thermodynamic factors, the intensity
 guidance shows a slow decay of the cyclone's winds during the next
 few days. The NHC intensity forecast follows this philosophy and is
 about the same as the previous one. The forecast is in basic
 agreement with the latest multi-model consensus, and still shows
 remnant low status on day 3 and dissipation just after day 5.
 
 The latest fixes suggest that the cyclone's forward speed may be
 decreasing, and the initial motion estimate is now 310/04.  A
 weakness in the subtropical ridge north of Douglas should result
 in a further reduction in forward speed, with a possible bend of the
 track toward the north-northwest during the next day or so. As the
 cyclone becomes shallower, a turn toward the west-northwest and
 then the west with some increase in forward speed should occur prior
 to dissipation.  The NHC track forecast is adjusted slightly to the
 right on the basis of the latest multi-model consensus but is on the
 far left side of the guidance envelope.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  01/2100Z 19.2N 115.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  02/0600Z 19.5N 116.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  02/1800Z 19.9N 116.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  03/0600Z 20.2N 116.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  03/1800Z 20.5N 117.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  04/1800Z 21.0N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  05/1800Z 21.6N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  06/1800Z 21.8N 125.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Kimberlain