799 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 010843
 TCDEP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014
 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014
 
 The cloud pattern associated with Douglas has not changed much over
 the past few hours, with some broken convective bands seen
 southeast and west of the center. A blend of the latest Dvorak
 estimates from TAFB and SAB and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT yields
 an initial intensity of 40 kt. While the shear is expected to remain
 low, Douglas will be moving over cool sea surface temperatures and
 into a more stable thermodynamic environment during the next few
 days. This should result in a gradual spin down of the large
 circulation, and Douglas is expected to weaken to a remnant low by
 day 4.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 315/06. As the ridge north of
 Douglas weakens later today, the cyclone should slow down and drift
 west-northwestward and westward for the next 2-3 days. After that
 time, the shallow cyclone will be steered more steadily westward by
 the trade wind flow. The new NHC track forecast is largely an
 update of the previous one through the forecast period.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  01/0900Z 18.8N 115.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  01/1800Z 19.1N 115.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  02/0600Z 19.4N 116.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  02/1800Z 19.6N 116.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  03/0600Z 19.7N 117.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  72H  04/0600Z 20.0N 118.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  05/0600Z 20.5N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  06/0600Z 21.0N 123.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan