787 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 032032
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042008
 200 PM PDT THU JUL 03 2008
  
 QUIKSCAT DATA AND A SHIP OBSERVATION SUGGEST THAT DOUGLAS WAS
 PROBABLY A LITTLE STRONGER THAN ESTIMATED EARLIER TODAY. INITIAL
 INTENSITY COULD HAVE BEEN 35 KNOTS INSTEAD OF THE 30 KT ESTIMATED
 IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  SINCE THEN...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
 CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE AND IT IS NOW ASSUMED THAT THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS. HOWEVER...SOME PATCHES OF STRONGER GUSTS ARE
 PROBABLY OCCURRING NORTH OF THE CENTER.  NEVERTHELESS... DOUGLAS IS
 OVER COOL WATERS AND ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.
 
 THE CLOUD SWIRL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7
 KNOTS. AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...IT SHOULD TURN MORE TO
 THE WEST STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      03/2100Z 20.7N 110.6W    30 KT
  12HR VT     04/0600Z 21.0N 111.5W    25 KT
  24HR VT     04/1800Z 21.0N 113.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     05/0600Z 21.0N 114.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     05/1800Z 21.0N 116.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA