608 
 WTNT45 KNHC 260237
 TCDAT5
 
 Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number   7
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 25 2019
 
 Dorian's cloud pattern hasn't changed much since this afternoon,
 with deep convection oscillating up and down.  There are few banding
 features evident, and the upper-level outflow is somewhat restricted
 over the eastern semicircle of the circulation.  The intensity
 estimate remains at 45 kt and is in agreement with a recent Dvorak
 estimate from TAFB.  The intensity forecast for this storm is a
 challenge, since the numerical guidance depicts a wide range of
 possibilities.  The GFS and ECMWF global models dissipate Dorian
 over the Caribbean in about 4 days, probably due to the hostile
 environment associated with an upper-level low near Hispaniola.
 Another unfavorable factor could be dry air that is also forecast by
 the global models over the Caribbean.  On the other hand, the
 statistical/dynamical models DSHIPS and LGEM do not weaken the
 system until it interacts with the land mass of Hispaniola.  The
 official forecast is close to the intensity model consensus, IVCN,
 but it should be noted that there is greater than usual uncertainty
 associated with this forecast.
 
 The motion continues to be slightly north of due west or 280/12.
 Dorian is moving along the southern side of the subtropical ridge.
 The track models are in good agreement that the cyclone will
 gradually turn toward the west-northwest on Monday.  A slight
 weakness in the ridge near 70W longitude in a couple of days should
 induce a gradual turn to the northwest later in the forecast period.
 The official track forecast is close to the corrected consensus,
 HCCA prediction and is also very close to the previous NHC track.
 
 Key Messages:
 
 1. Dorian is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
 portions of the Lesser Antilles, where tropical storm watches and
 warnings are in effect.  Residents in these areas should refer to
 advice from local government officials and products from their
 local meteorological service for additional information.
 
 2. Dorian is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rainfall across
 portions of the Lesser Antilles, with isolated amounts as high as 6
 inches.
 
 3.  While it is too soon to determine the specific time or
 magnitude of possible direct impacts in Puerto Rico, the Virgin
 Islands, or Hispaniola interests in those areas should monitor the
 progress of Dorian.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  26/0300Z 11.7N  55.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  26/1200Z 12.1N  57.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  27/0000Z 12.8N  59.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  27/1200Z 13.7N  61.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  28/0000Z 14.8N  63.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
  72H  29/0000Z 17.2N  67.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  30/0000Z 19.5N  71.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 120H  31/0000Z 21.5N  74.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...OVER WATER
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch/Latto