398 
 WTNT44 KNHC 262032
 TCDAT4
  
 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042013
 500 PM AST FRI JUL 26 2013
  
 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER AIR...DORIAN HAS
 BECOME EVEN LESS ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS EARLIER TODAY.  VISIBLE
 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME
 DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF AN AREA OF WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION.
 ALSO...ANIMATION OF THE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CIRCULATION IS BARELY
 CLOSED AT THIS TIME.  USING A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM SAB
 AND TAFB...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KT.  THE
 OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST NOW SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING WITH
 DISSIPATION BY DAY 5...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF
 GUIDANCE.  GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM COULD
 DEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN WAVE MUCH SOONER THAN THAT.
  
 THE LATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT DORIAN IS MOVING RAPIDLY
 WESTWARD...SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  A STRONG
 LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF DORIAN IS
 FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD WITH TIME BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.  THIS
 SHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE SOUTH OF
 THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
 ENVELOPE.  THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL TRACK IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH
 BUT THAT MODEL DOES NOT INITIALIZE NOR FORECAST A CLOSED SURFACE
 CIRCULATION.
  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  26/2100Z 17.8N  45.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  27/0600Z 18.2N  48.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  27/1800Z 18.6N  52.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  28/0600Z 19.0N  56.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  28/1800Z 19.5N  60.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  29/1800Z 20.0N  67.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  30/1800Z 20.5N  74.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 120H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH