501 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 241436
 TCDEP4
  
 TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011
 800 AM PDT SUN JUL 24 2011
  
 DORA HAS STUBBORNLY MAINTAINED A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER
 THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF ITS CIRCULATION...AND THE CURRENT
 INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 35 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK
 ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  A NOAA AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
 TO INVESTIGATE DORA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEASURE THE INTENSITY OF THE
 SYSTEM.  SINCE THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER 21 DEG C WATERS...IT WILL
 PROBABLY BE UNABLE TO SUSTAIN DEEP CONVECTION MUCH LONGER...AND
 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY LATE
 TONIGHT.  AS NOTED EARLIER...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE
 CIRCULATION DISSIPATING WITHIN 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/8...AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  DORA IS
 BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE WEST OF A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
 RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
 SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LEANS TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF
 PREDICTIONS OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  THIS IS ON THE EASTERN
 SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  24/1500Z 23.5N 114.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  25/0000Z 24.4N 114.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
  24H  25/1200Z 25.5N 115.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  26/0000Z 26.4N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH