162 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 240843
 TCDEP4
  
 TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011
 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 24 2011
  
 DORA HAD LOST ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION AROUND 0000 UTC BUT HAS
 RECENTLY DEVELOPED A SMALL BURST ABOUT 60 N MI SOUTH OF THE
 LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  NONETHELESS...THE CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY SPINNING
 DOWN...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT BASED ON DVORAK
 CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS BETWEEN 2.0 AND 2.5 FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
 THE UW-CIMMS ADT.  DORA IS NOW OVER 21-22C WATER AND WILL BE UNABLE
 TO MAINTAIN PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION...SO IT IS LIKELY THAT IT
 WILL DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.
 
 DORA IS STILL MOVING A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK WITH
 AN INITIAL MOTION OF 320/8.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT
 THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS WILL DECOUPLE OVER THE NEXT
 COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS IN THE DIRECTION
 OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NEAR-SURFACE CENTERS OF CIRCULATION.  THIS NEW
 FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES ALONG
 THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS
 HOLD ON TO AN AREA OF VORTICITY AT 850 MB FOR SEVERAL MORE
 DAYS...THEY ALL SHOW THE 10-METER WIND CIRCULATION OPENING UP WELL
 BEFORE THEN...AND DISSIPATION IS NOW SHOWN BY 48 HOURS.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  24/0900Z 23.0N 113.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  24/1800Z 23.9N 114.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
  24H  25/0600Z 24.9N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  25/1800Z 26.0N 115.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BERG