012 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 211439
 TCDEP4
  
 HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011
 800 AM PDT THU JUL 21 2011
  
 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL OF DORA HAS
 BECOME MORE INTENSE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE EYE
 STAYING MOSTLY CLEAR. VISIBLE PICTURES ARE RATHER SPECTACULAR WITH
 MESOVORTICES NOTED WITHIN THE DISTINCT EYE. DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE
 BETWEEN 127-140 KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 135 KT.
 DORA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A DECLINE IN STRENGTH LATER TODAY AS IT
 BEGINS TO MOVE INTO A BIT COOLER WATERS.  THE WEAKENING SHOULD
 BECOME RATHER RAPID BY LATE TOMORROW DUE TO MUCH COLDER WATERS AND
 SOME MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
 BLEND OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND IS CLOSEST TO THE LGEM MODEL.
  
 THE LATEST MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/11.  DORA SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY
 TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY LOWER FORWARD SPEED DURING THE
 NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO RIDGING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.  THE
 GLOBAL MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THE RIDGE
 STRENGTH AFTER THAT TIME...AND CONSEQUENTLY THERE IS SOME
 DISAGREEMENT ON WHETHER THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK CONTINUES OR DORA
 BENDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  THE GUIDANCE HAS MADE ANOTHER SMALL
 SHIFT TO THE RIGHT IN THE LONGER-RANGE...THOUGH EVERY RELIABLE
 MODEL STILL KEEPS THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WELL AWAY FROM BAJA
 CALIFORNIA.  THE NHC FORECAST IS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED THROUGH 48
 HOURS...AND IS A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AFTER THAT
 TIME.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  21/1500Z 17.1N 106.9W  135 KT 155 MPH
  12H  22/0000Z 18.1N 108.0W  130 KT 150 MPH
  24H  22/1200Z 19.1N 109.2W  115 KT 135 MPH
  36H  23/0000Z 20.0N 110.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
  48H  23/1200Z 20.8N 111.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  72H  24/1200Z 22.5N 114.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  25/1200Z 24.4N 117.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  26/1200Z 26.0N 120.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE