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 739 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 202037
 TCDEP4
  
 HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011
 200 PM PDT WED JUL 20 2011
  
 DORA IS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING.  RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
 SHOWS THAT AN EYE HAS FORMED WITH INTENSE CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL
 AND OCCASIONAL HINTS OF MESOVORTICES WITHIN THE EYE.  DVORAK
 ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 102 AND 90 KT RESPECTIVELY...WITH
 THE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS FROM UW-CIMSS AT 115 KT.  A BLEND OF THESE
 DATA GIVES AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 100 KT...MAKING DORA THE SECOND
 MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2011 EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON.
  
 NOW THAT THE INNER CORE HAS SOLIDIFIED...DORA WILL PROBABLY
 INTENSIFY AT A RAPID RATE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO CONDUCIVE
 ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.   ALL OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE NOW SHOW
 DORA PEAKING NEAR OR AT CATEGORY 4 STATUS TOMORROW.  IN FACT THE
 SHIP RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX INDICATES A 46 PERCENT CHANCE OF A
 40 KT INCREASE WITHIN 24 HOURS...A RATHER HIGH VALUE. FROM THE 1800
 UTC ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 95 KT...THE NHC FORECAST WILL BE MORE
 CONSERVATIVE BUT STILL INDICATE A 24-HOUR PERIOD OF RAPID
 INTENSIFICATION.  IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...SSTS FALL QUITE RAPIDLY...AND
 SO SHOULD THE WINDS OF DORA.  THE LATER PART OF THE NHC FORECAST IS
 CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND DORA SHOULD BECOME
 POST-TROPICAL BETWEEN DAYS 4 AND 5.
  
 THE HURRICANE HAS SLOWED A BIT AND IS MOVING 295/14.  A TURN TOWARD
 THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST OVER THE
 NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF A RIDGE OVER THE
 CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS...SAVE THE
 HWRF...KEEP DORA WELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND ACTUALLY
 TURN THE SYSTEM MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN ABOUT THREE DAYS.
 THE OVERALL TRACK ENVELOPE CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD IN THE
 LONGER RANGE...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN MOVED IN THAT
 DIRECTION.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  20/2100Z 15.5N 104.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
  12H  21/0600Z 16.5N 105.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
  24H  21/1800Z 17.7N 107.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
  36H  22/0600Z 18.7N 108.8W  115 KT 135 MPH
  48H  22/1800Z 19.6N 109.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
  72H  23/1800Z 21.0N 112.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
  96H  24/1800Z 22.5N 116.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 120H  25/1800Z 24.5N 119.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE
  
 
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