714 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 182034
 TCDEP4
  
 TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011
 200 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2011
  
 DORA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN DESPITE MODEST NORTHERLY
 UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND THE RAGGED APPEARANCE OF THE LARGE CURVED
 BAND THAT NOW WRAPS ALMOST THREE QUARTERS OF THE WAY AROUND THE
 CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T2.5/35
 KT AND T2.0/30 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES ARE
 T2.5/35 KT. HOWEVER...AN ASCAT OVERPASS AT 1610Z INDICATED A COUPLE
 OF 40-KT WIND VECTORS WITHIN A LARGE FIELD OF 34-KT WINDS...SO THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/12. DORA HAS BEEN WOBBLING ABOUT
 THIS MEAN MOTION AS SMALLER CIRCULATIONS HAVE BEEN ROTATING AROUND
 THE MEAN CENTER. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR THE
 CYCLONE TO CONTINUE MOVING IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION
 THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS DORA IS STEERED BY THE LARGE AND
 STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. BY 72-96 HOURS...THE
 WESTERN PORTION OF THE EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
 WEAKEN...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
 HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY ERODE LIKE THE
 GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE FORECASTING. AS A RESULT...THE CENTER OF
 DORA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF MAINLAND MEXICO. THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN.
  
 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE INNER CORE
 WIND FIELD HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS THE LAST OF MULTIPLE
 SMALLER CIRCULATIONS HAS MERGED INTO THE MAIN LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
 CENTER. GIVEN THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE OVER
 THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS DORA PASSES OVER PROGRESSIVELY WARMER
 WATER...A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST
 THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH
 72-84 HOURS...AFTER WHICH RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS
 THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATER WEST OF 110W LONGITUDE.
 THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
 AND REMAINS WELL ABOVE ALL OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
 
 WIND RADII ARE BASED ON THE 1610Z ASCAT OVERPASS.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  18/2100Z 10.7N  92.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  19/0600Z 11.1N  94.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  19/1800Z 11.9N  97.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  20/0600Z 13.0N 100.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
  48H  20/1800Z 14.3N 102.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
  72H  21/1800Z 17.0N 107.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
  96H  22/1800Z 18.7N 110.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 120H  23/1800Z 20.0N 113.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART