763 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 181433
 TCDEP5
 
 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015
 
 Dolores's low-level center is becoming increasingly separated from
 the remaining deep convection, which is hanging back over the
 warmer water to the south.  Dvorak CI numbers range from 30-35 kt,
 and the initial intensity is therefore conservatively set at 35 kt.
 Cold water ahead of the cyclone should continue the current
 weakening trend, and Dolores should become a remnant low within 24
 hours once all the deep convection near the center dissipates.  The
 remnant low should then dissipate by day 4 southwest of the southern
 California coast.  The NHC intensity forecast is close to the GFS
 and the consensus of the hurricane intensity models (IVCN).
 
 Dolores has turned northwestward, or 315/9 kt, in the flow between
 a subtropical ridge over northern Mexico and a deep-layer trough
 west of California.  The cyclone is expected to accelerate toward
 the north-northwest during the next couple of days and then drift
 northward or northeastward by day 3 when it's left in weak
 low-level flow.  The NHC track forecast is a little to the east of
 the previous forecast during the first 12-24 hours to account for
 the recent turn toward the northwest, but otherwise it is very
 similar after 24 hours.  This solution is very close to the
 GFS-ECMWF consensus.
 
 Moisture associated with Dolores is expected to spread over the
 southwestern United States over the next few days, increasing the
 possibility of heavy rains and flash flooding over portions of
 Arizona, southern California, and southern Nevada.  Please refer to
 statements from your local weather office at www.weather.gov for
 more information.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  18/1500Z 23.1N 118.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  19/0000Z 24.4N 118.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  19/1200Z 26.7N 119.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  20/0000Z 29.2N 120.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  20/1200Z 30.9N 120.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  21/1200Z 31.5N 120.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Berg