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 129 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 172033
 TCDEP5
 
 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015
 
 Dolores is producing a patch of deep convection to the west and
 northwest of its low-level center.  The maximum winds continue to
 decrease, and the advisory intensity is set at 50 kt based on a
 blend of the decreasing Dvorak CI numbers.  A 1656 UTC ASCAT-B pass
 showed a swath of 40-45 kt winds northwest of the center, and given
 the instrument's resolution, it is possible that a small area of
 50-kt winds could still be occurring within the deep convection.
 Colder water and increasing shear in the next 24-48 hours are
 expected to lead to further steady weakening, and Dolores is
 forecast to become a tropical depression by 36 hours and a remnant
 low by day 3.  The official intensity forecast is near the
 intensity consensus.  However, the recent rate of weakening has
 been faster than expected, and Dolores could become a remnant low
 sooner than shown below.
 
 Dolores appears to have jogged westward today, and the longer-term
 motion is 285/9 kt.  The cyclone will be approaching the western
 periphery of the subtropical ridge during the next day or so, which
 will cause it to turn northwestward and then north-northwestward by
 48 hours.  Once Dolores becomes a remnant low, weak low-level
 steering should cause it to become nearly stationary on day 4 well
 southwest of the southern California coast.  The updated NHC track
 forecast has been shifted slightly eastward, but still lies west of
 the TVCN multi-model consensus.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  17/2100Z 21.3N 116.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  18/0600Z 21.9N 117.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  18/1800Z 23.3N 118.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  19/0600Z 25.2N 119.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  19/1800Z 27.5N 120.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
  72H  20/1800Z 30.6N 121.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  21/1800Z 31.0N 121.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Berg
 
 
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