555 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 170235
 TCDEP5
 
 HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
 900 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2015
 
 Dolores's convective cloud pattern continues to deteriorate with a
 significant erosion of deep convection having occurred in the
 western semicircle since the previous advisory. However, the
 eyewall convection has changed little and the eye has contracted
 down to about a 15-nmi diameter. A blend of Dvorak CI numbers
 from TAFB and SAB, along UW-CIMSS ADT values, supports lowering the
 initial intensity to 85 kt for this advisory.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 310/08 kt. Dolores has made a
 noticeable jog toward the northwest during the past 6 hours, which
 was likely due to the aforementioned convective asymmetry that has
 developed. However, this should just be a short term motion and a
 turn back toward the west-northwest is expected later tonight, and
 then continue for another 36 hours or so. After that, the cyclone is
 forecast to turn toward the northwest and north-northwest as Dolores
 skirts along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge that
 extends westward from the U.S Southern Plains across northern Mexico
 and Baja California. The NHC forecast track is to the right of the
 previous advisory track, mainly to account for the more northerly
 initial position, and lies close to the multi-model consensus TVCE
 and the FSSE model.
 
 Dolores is forecast to move over progressively cooler waters during
 the 5-day period, reaching sub-26C SSTs within the next 12 hours or
 so and moving over 23C water temperatures by 48 hours. The result
 should be continued erosion of Dolores's convective pattern along
 with steady weakening. Dolores is expected to become a remnant low
 pressure system in 72 hours, if not sooner. The official intensity
 forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows
 the ICON intensity consensus model.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  17/0300Z 20.8N 113.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
  12H  17/1200Z 21.2N 114.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
  24H  18/0000Z 21.7N 116.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  36H  18/1200Z 22.7N 117.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  19/0000Z 24.4N 118.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  20/0000Z 28.7N 121.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  21/0000Z 30.5N 122.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  22/0000Z 30.2N 123.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart