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 508 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 161437
 TCDEP5
 
 HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
 900 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2015
 
 Cloud tops have actually cooled around Dolores's eye during the
 past few hours, with a black ring completely encircling the eye in
 the infrared Dvorak enhancement.  This would suggest that weakening
 is not occurring at the moment, and the initial intensity is held
 at 100 kt.  Dolores has another 24 hours or so before it reaches
 sub-26C water, and given the hurricane's marginal annular structure,
 only gradual weakening is anticipated in the short term.  Much
 colder water, increasing shear, and a drier, more stable environment
 should induce a faster rate of weakening after 24 hours, and Dolores
 could become a tropical storm within 48 hours.  The cyclone is
 expected to be a remnant low by day 5.  The NHC intensity forecast
 is close to a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models for the first 36
 hours and then near the IVCN intensity consensus thereafter.  The
 SHIPS and LGEM dissipate the system by day 4 or 5, which seems
 unrealistic given that the global models maintain a cyclone for the
 entire forecast period.
 
 Dolores has been moving northwestward, or 305/6 kt, but it should
 turn west-northwestward soon as a mid-level ridge axis builds
 westward from northern Mexico.  A turn back to the northwest and
 then north-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected
 beyond 48 hours once Dolores reaches the western periphery of the
 ridge.  The GFS and ECMWF models are in much better agreement than
 they were yesterday, and the main outliers on this cycle are the
 UKMET and GFDL, which seem too far to the east.  The new NHC track
 forecast remains near the GFS-ECMWF consensus and is not much
 different from the previous forecast.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  16/1500Z 19.9N 111.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
  12H  17/0000Z 20.3N 113.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
  24H  17/1200Z 20.9N 114.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
  36H  18/0000Z 21.3N 116.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  18/1200Z 22.3N 117.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
  72H  19/1200Z 25.6N 120.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  20/1200Z 29.5N 123.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  21/1200Z 30.5N 124.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Berg
 
 
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