672 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 122053
 TCDEP5
 
 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
 400 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
 
 There has been no significant change in Dolores' organization
 during the past several hours.  Satellite imagery continues to
 show most of the cyclone's deep convection remaining in a band over
 the northeastern semicircle of the circulation. This convective
 asymmetry is likely related to some west-northwesterly shear as
 diagnosed by UW-CIMSS and SHIPS shear analyses. An ASCAT-B pass
 showed the center barely underneath the convective mass, with peak
 uncontaminated winds around 45 kt. Based on the ASCAT data, the
 initial intensity is raised to 45 kt.
 
 The ASCAT pass showed the center of Dolores to be a bit farther
 south than previous estimates, and the heading is estimated to be
 more westerly or 295/09.  A subtropical ridge over the south-central
 United States should guide Dolores generally west-northwestward
 with a decrease in forward speed during the next 48 hours.  The
 cyclone's heading should become more northwesterly by 72 hours, when
 Dolores reaches the western periphery of the ridge. Later in the
 forecast period, Dolores' track should bend back toward the west-
 northwest as the subtropical ridge reasserts itself.  The
 official track forecast is similar to but a little to the left of
 the previous one through 48 hours and slightly to the right after
 that.  The track forecast after 48 hours is near a multi-model
 consensus that excludes the GFDL solution which unrealistically
 takes Dolores toward the Baja California peninsula.
 
 Thermodynamic variables in the near-storm environment are quite
 conducive for intensification, with sea surface temperatures of
 29-30 deg C and plenty of deep-layer moisture.  Some west-
 northwesterly shear is forecast to persist and perhaps even
 increase over the next day or so before decreasing from 72 hours
 through the remainder of the forecast period.  However, the shear
 is not expected to be strong enough to impede steady
 intensification.  With a sharp gradient in SSTs along 20N, the
 intensity late in the period is very much dependent on how much
 latitude Dolores gains by that time.  The NHC intensity forecast is
 about the same as the previous one and is very similar to the
 multi-model consensus (ICON) through 48 hours but above ICON
 after that, closest to the SHIPS model guidance.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  12/2100Z 15.6N 103.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  13/0600Z 16.2N 104.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  13/1800Z 16.8N 106.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  36H  14/0600Z 17.2N 107.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
  48H  14/1800Z 17.7N 108.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
  72H  15/1800Z 18.9N 109.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
  96H  16/1800Z 20.0N 112.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 120H  17/1800Z 20.9N 114.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Kimberlain