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 169 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 121453
 TCDEP5
 
 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
 1000 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
 
 There has been no appreciable change to the organization of
 Dolores' cloud pattern during the past several hours.  Satellite
 data show the cyclone maintaining a large mass of cold-topped
 convection, primarily in a band over the northeastern semicircle of
 the circulation. Microwave data and visible satellite imagery
 suggest that the low-level center is located near a new convective
 burst, perhaps the beginning of a central dense overcast. Dvorak
 classifications were T2.5 and T3.0 from SAB and TAFB, respectively,
 at 1200 UTC.  A blend of these satellite intensity estimates is used
 to keep the intensity at 40 kt.
 
 The initial motion is between west-northwest and northwest or
 305/09. A mid-level anticyclone over the south-central United
 States should steer Dolores on a generally west-northwestward
 heading for the next 5 days, with some deceleration in forward speed
 by 48 hours.  Global models are in excellent agreement on this
 scenario, and the spread of the model guidance is generally low
 through 72 hours, except for the GFDL model that takes Dolores
 toward the Baja California peninsula.  After 72 hours, the model
 solutions diverge somewhat, with the GFS taking Dolores farther
 north due to a weaker subtropical ridge and the ECMWF showing the
 cyclone farther west due to a stronger ridge and a weaker trough off
 of the U.S. West coast. The NHC forecast track is along or just to
 the left of the previous forecast, closely following the multi-model
 consensus minus the GFDL solution.
 
 Dolores seems poised to strengthen.  Atmospheric and oceanic
 thermodynamic variables are quite conducive for intensification
 through about 96 hours. In fact, the SHIPS RI index indicates a 70
 percent chance of a 25-kt increase by this time tomorrow. However,
 the SHIPS model does indicate some light westerly or northwesterly
 shear in 24-48 hours, but it would appear that the shear is not
 enough to impede intensification.  Beyond 96 hours, water
 temperatures are expected to be marginally warm and Dolores should
 have already begun to ingest somewhat drier and more stable air,
 which should promote weakening.  The intensity at the end of the
 forecast period is very much dependent on how much latitude Dolores
 gains by that time.  Like previous forecasts, the current one is
 near or above the multi-model consensus similar to SHIPS
 model guidance.
 
 The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch along
 the southwestern coast of Mexico due to the cyclone's expected
 intensification and associated increase in the size of the wind
 field.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  12/1500Z 15.4N 101.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  13/0000Z 16.1N 103.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  13/1200Z 16.8N 104.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  14/0000Z 17.3N 106.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  14/1200Z 17.8N 107.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
  72H  15/1200Z 18.8N 109.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
  96H  16/1200Z 19.7N 110.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 120H  17/1200Z 20.3N 113.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Kimberlain
 
 
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