Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 392 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 112033
 TCDEP5
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
 400 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
 
 The cloud pattern of the depression appears to be gradually
 organizing.  Visible satellite images show banding features
 increasing on the east side of the circulation and some of the outer
 bands are affecting the southern coast of Mexico.  The initial wind
 speed estimate remains 30 kt, in agreement with the satellite
 classifications from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT.  It should be
 noted that recent ASCAT passes showed slightly higher winds, but
 those appear to be partly associated with a Tehuantepec gap wind
 event.
 
 The depression is expected to strengthen during the next several
 days while it remains over warm water and in atmosphere of low shear
 and high moisture.  The GFS and ECMWF models show the system
 substantially deepening during the next several days, and the SHIPS
 Rapid Intensification Index shows a 63 percent chance of the system
 strengthening by 25 kt during the next 24 hours.  Conversely, the
 GFDL and HWRF models continue to predict only slight strengthening.
 The official forecast is a little higher than the previous one and
 lies at the high end of the model guidance, following the SHIPS
 model.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 300/9.  A continued
 west-northwestward to northwestward motion at about the same speed
 is expected during the next couple of days while the system is
 steered by a mid-level ridge over the south-central United States.
 After that time, a slower west-northwestward motion is forecast when
 the ridge weakens. Little change was made to the previous forecast
 and it remains near the middle of the guidance envelope.  Although
 the current track forecast remains offshore of Mexico, a small
 deviation to the north of the projected track could require the
 issuance of tropical storm watches or warnings for a portion of the
 southwestern coast.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  11/2100Z 13.7N  99.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  12/0600Z 14.5N 101.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  12/1800Z 15.7N 103.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  13/0600Z 16.8N 105.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  13/1800Z 17.7N 106.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  14/1800Z 18.7N 108.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
  96H  15/1800Z 19.7N 110.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 120H  16/1800Z 20.0N 111.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for DOLORES

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman