122 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 160835
 TCDEP5
 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052009
 200 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2009
  
 THE LOW LEVEL-CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE ELONGATED FROM NORTHWEST
 TO SOUTHEAST AND IN FACT...THE LATEST QUIKSCAT SHOWS A DISORGANIZED
 SURFACE CIRCULATION WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO FIND EVEN USING THE
 AMBIGUITIES. HOWEVER...THERE IS A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
 BUT THE CONVECTION IS VANISHING AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE ESTIMATES
 ARE ASSUMING THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS COLLOCATED WITH THE
 MID-LEVEL AND THE T-NUMBERS ARE 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SAME AS
 00 UTC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KNOTS BUT THIS COULD BE
 GENEROUS GIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION. BECAUSE A PORTION
 OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER COOLER WATER...NO SIGNIFICANT
 CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST FOR TODAY.  THEREAFTER...DOLORES IS
 FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER COOLER
 WATERS AND THE SHEAR INCREASES.
 
 BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE
 INITIAL MOTION IS ALSO UNCERTAIN. DOLORES APPEARS TO BE MOVING
 TOWARD THE NORTHWEST A LITTLE BIT FASTER AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
 PERIPHERY OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
 WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY
 WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST AS DOLORES WEAKENS TO A REMNANT
 LOW.  MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS KEEPING THE
 CYCLONE OR THE LOW ON A NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...BUT THE
 MODEL SPREAD IS QUITE LARGER THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
 ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOLLOWING THE
 GFDL/HWRF PAIR AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
   
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      16/0900Z 18.2N 119.1W    45 KT
  12HR VT     16/1800Z 19.5N 121.2W    45 KT
  24HR VT     17/0600Z 21.0N 124.2W    40 KT
  36HR VT     17/1800Z 22.0N 127.0W    35 KT
  48HR VT     18/0600Z 23.0N 130.0W    30 KT
  72HR VT     19/0600Z 24.5N 134.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     20/0600Z 25.5N 138.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     21/0600Z 26.0N 142.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA