770 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 150833
 TCDEP5
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052009
 200 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2009
  
 THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED IN STRUCTURE DURING THE PAST FEW
 HOURS AND CONSISTS OF A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A LARGE
 AREA OF CONVECTION TO ITS EAST. THE CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO
 LOCATE ON IR IMAGES...BUT WE KNOW IT IS NOT EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
 THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME...AS INDICATED BY MICROWAVE
 DATA. IN FACT....A RECENT ASCAT PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER COULD
 BE FARTHER SOUTH THAN INDICATED AND EVEN MORE REMOVED FROM THE DEEP
 CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT.  THE
 DEPRESSION HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT
 ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS AND STABLE AIR IN TWO DAYS OR SO.
 HOWEVER...NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS SIGNIFICANT
 STRENGTHENING.
 
 BASED ON CONTINUITY...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/09.  THE
 CYCLONE IS MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE
 MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO. GLOBAL
 MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL PERSIST AND SHOULD
 KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
 DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THEREAFTER...WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED
 AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME MORE SHALLOW AND STEERED WESTWARD BY
 THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ONE...VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL
 CONSENSUS AND HEAVILY BIAS ON THE GFDL/HWRF SOLUTION.
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      15/0900Z 14.2N 114.6W    30 KT
  12HR VT     15/1800Z 15.2N 115.8W    35 KT
  24HR VT     16/0600Z 16.7N 118.0W    40 KT
  36HR VT     16/1800Z 18.0N 120.5W    40 KT
  48HR VT     17/0600Z 19.0N 123.5W    35 KT
  72HR VT     18/0600Z 20.5N 129.5W    30 KT
  96HR VT     19/0600Z 21.5N 136.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     20/0600Z 21.5N 141.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA