828 
 WTNT45 KNHC 012036
 TCDAT5
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
 400 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014
 
 An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft investigating the
 low pressure area over the southwest Gulf of Mexico found a
 well-defined center of circulation.  The system has a curved band of
 deep convection that wraps around the southern and eastern portions
 of the circulation.  Thus the system is being designated as a
 tropical depression at this time.  The maximum winds reported by the
 aircraft so far support an intensity of 25 kt.  Although the
 cyclone is situated over very warm waters of near 30 deg C, the
 atmospheric environment is not ideal for strengthening.  Dynamical
 models indicate that significant northerly to northwesterly
 vertical shear should affect the tropical cyclone for the next 36
 hours and this is likely to limit intensification up to landfall.
 After landfall, dissipation should be quick due to the mountainous
 terrain of Mexico.  The official wind speed forecast is a little
 above the intensity model consensus.
 
 The initial motion is west-northwestward or around 295/11.  The
 steering scenario appears to be fairly straightforward.  The flow
 to the south of a mid-level ridge along the northern Gulf of Mexico
 coast should maintain a west-northwestward track for the next 36
 hours, i.e. through the expected time of landfall.  The official
 track forecast is very close to the latest dynamical model
 consensus.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  01/2100Z 20.1N  93.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
  12H  02/0600Z 21.1N  94.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  02/1800Z 21.9N  96.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  03/0600Z 22.4N  97.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
  48H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch