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 263 
 WTNT44 KNHC 230259
 TCDAT4
 HURRICANE DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008
 1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008
  
 THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD BEEN FALLING AT A LITTLE OVER 1 MB/HR
 EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS APPEARS TO
 HAVE LEVELED OFF. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SFMR ON THE NOAA
 AIRCRAFT WERE 70 KT...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED ON
 THIS BASIS. DOLLY HAS SPENT THE LAST 12 HOURS OR SO TRAVERSING A
 COOL GULF RING...AND THIS ENCOUNTER MAY BE SLOWING THE
 INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
 CYCLONE'S OUTFLOW IS BEGINNING TO BECOME RESTRICTED TO THE WEST BY
 A NARROW UPPER LOW OVER WEST TEXAS. CONVECTION REMAINS
 ASYMMETRIC...FAVORING THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THE RADAR
 PRESENTATION HAS NOT IMPROVED APPRECIABLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
 HOURS. THESE OBSERVATIONS LEAD ME TO BELIEVE THAT ONLY MODEST
 ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL...
 ASSUMING...OF COURSE...THAT DOLLY DOES NOT REMAIN OVER WATER
 SIGNIFICANTLY LONGER THAN EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SPLITS
 THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SHIPS/LGEM AND THE GFDL.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/8.  THE FORWARD SPEED HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
 SLOWING DURING THE DAY...AS A MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS
 SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND WEAKENS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
 THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  MODEL GUIDANCE...CONTINUES TO
 SLOW THE FORWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...TO 5 KT OR LESS
 IN THE CASE OF THE GFS.  THE MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE GOOD WITH THE
 VARIATIONS IN SPEED WITH THIS STORM SO FAR...AND THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. 
 AFTER LANDFALL...DOLLY SHOULD TURN WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER
 SPEED TO THE SOUTH OF A SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
 
 SHOULD DOLLY SLOW AS MUCH AS THE GFS IS FORECASTING...THE CURRENT
 RAINFALL ESTIMATES...OF UP TO 15 INCHES IN SPOTS...WILL LIKELY BE
 LOW.
   
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      23/0300Z 25.1N  96.0W    70 KT
  12HR VT     23/1200Z 25.7N  97.0W    80 KT
  24HR VT     24/0000Z 26.1N  98.3W    50 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     24/1200Z 26.3N  99.8W    30 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
 
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