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 081 
 WTNT44 KNHC 221443
 TCDAT4
 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008
 1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008
 
 REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT DOLLY IS
 GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. THE SFMR ON BOARD OF THE PLANE REPORTED AN
 ISOLATED PEAK OF 65 KNOTS...A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 991 MB AND AN
 OPEN EYEWALL OF 20 NMI IN DIAMETER. SSMI DATA SHOWS THE EARLY
 STAGES OF A CONVECTING RING AROUND THE CENTER.  CONVECTIONAL
 SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH A LITTLE
 BETTER DEFINED OUTFLOW.  BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL INTENSITY IS 60
 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE OVER DOLLY.
 THIS UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IN COMBINATION WITH WARM WATERS SHOULD
 RESULT IN STRENGTHENING. BOTH GFDL AND HWRF INTENSITY FORECASTS
 HAVE GONE UP AND DOWN WITH EACH RUN...BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS
 UPWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS DOLLY TO 80 KNOTS AT
 LANDFALL...5 KNOTS HIGHER THAN INDICATED BY ALL GUIDANCE.
 
 FIXES FROM THE NOAA PLANE INDICATE THAT DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE
 NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO
 WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
 INDICATED UNTIL LANDFALL ON WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...A RIDGE IS
 FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH OF DOLLY AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN TURN
 MORE TO WEST...BUT VERY SLOWLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE
 TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BRINGS THE CORE OF DOLLY NEAR THE
 MEXICO/US BORDER ON WEDNESDAY. IT SHOULD BE RE-EMPHASIZED
 THAT...DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES...ONE MUST NOT FOCUS ON
 THE EXACT LANDFALL POINT IN THIS FORECAST.
  
 THE CENTER OF DOLLY IS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON BROWNSVILLE RADAR. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      22/1500Z 24.0N  94.5W    60 KT
  12HR VT     23/0000Z 24.8N  95.6W    70 KT
  24HR VT     23/1200Z 25.7N  97.0W    80 KT
  36HR VT     24/0000Z 26.0N  98.0W    60 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     24/1200Z 26.0N  99.5W    40 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     25/1200Z 26.0N 102.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 
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