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 444 
 WTNT44 KNHC 090837
 TCDAT4
 
 Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number   8
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018
 500 AM AST Thu Aug 09 2018
 
 Debby is still hanging on to tropical storm status with a new burst
 of deep convection having recently developed just south of the
 low-level center. However, the cyclone's overall cloud pattern has
 deteriorated significantly since the previous advisory, and there
 are no longer any convective bands in the region where earlier
 40-plus-kt ASCAT winds were observed. As a result, the initial
 intensity has been lowered slightly to 40 kt, which is consistent
 with an average of consensus current T-number and current intensity
 estimates of T2.5 and T3.0, respectively, from both TAFB and SAB.
 
 Debby has begun to accelerate northeastward, and the motion
 estimate is now 055/15 kt. A faster northeastward motion is expected
 as Debby gets caught up in the high-latitude westerlies ahead of a
 fast-moving shortwave trough. The small cyclone is forecast to open
 up into a surface trough by 24 h or so due to Debby moving faster
 than 20 kt and steady weakening of the circulation over the cold
 waters of the far north Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is
 similar to the previous advisory and basically lies down the middle
 of the tightly packed guidance envelope.
 
 Although Debby has been and is forecast to continue straddling a
 tight SST gradient with 26+ deg C water just to the southeast and
 south of the center, the ingestion of drier and more stable air
 from the north is expected to induce gradual weakening until
 dissipation or absorption occurs in about 24 h. Debby could briefly
 become extratropical in about 18 h, followed by dissipation shortly
 thereafter.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  09/0900Z 43.6N  45.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  09/1800Z 45.4N  41.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart
 
 
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