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 190 
 WTNT44 KNHC 090241
 TCDAT4
 
 Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number   7
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018
 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 08 2018
 
 A very recent ASCAT pass indicates that Debby is stronger than
 previously estimated.  The pass showed maximum winds of about 40 kt,
 and since the entire circulation was not captured, the initial
 intensity is set at 45 kt.  This estimate is also in agreement with
 a Dvorak CI-number from TAFB.  Although the relatively compact
 tropical storm is maintaining an area of moderate convection, the
 thunderstorm activity is displaced to the south-southwest of the
 center due to about 15 kt of wind shear.  Debby is currently over
 fairly cool 25 deg C SSTs, but it will be headed for much cooler
 water during the next 24 to 36 hours.  These unfavorable oceanic
 conditions combined with an increasingly stable airmass should cause
 weakening and extratropical transition.  The NHC intensity forecast
 shows Debby becoming extratropical by 24 hours and dissipating
 shortly thereafter, following the GFS and ECMWF models.
 
 The tropical storm is moving northeastward, or 040 degrees, at 13
 kt.  A faster northeastward motion is expected until the cyclone
 opens into a trough as Debby becomes more embedded in the
 mid-latitude flow.  The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of
 the guidance envelope.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  09/0300Z 42.8N  46.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  09/1200Z 44.4N  43.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  10/0000Z 46.8N  37.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  36H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 
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