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 581 
 WTNT44 KNHC 082033
 TCDAT4
 
 Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number   6
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018
 500 PM AST Wed Aug 08 2018
 
 Satellite images indicate that Debby's circulation is becoming
 elongated and the low-level center is on the northeastern edge of an
 area of moderate convection.  A blend of the satellite intensity
 estimates, and data from an earlier ASCAT pass yields an intensity
 of 35 kt at this time.  Debby is already moving over cooler waters,
 so additional weakening is anticipated, and the circulation should
 should open up into a trough on Thursday. In fact, this is the
 solution of the GFS and the ECMWF models.
 
 Satellite fixes indicate that Debby is moving toward the northeast
 or 040 degrees at 13 knots.  The cyclone is well embedded within the
 southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough, and this pattern
 should continue to steer Debby northeastward with some increase in
 forward speed.  The track models continue to be in pretty good
 agreement.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  08/2100Z 42.0N  47.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  09/0600Z 43.5N  45.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  09/1800Z 45.5N  41.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  36H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila
 
 
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