013 
 WTNT44 KNHC 081436
 TCDAT4
 
 Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number   5
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018
 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 08 2018
 
 The cloud pattern of Debby this morning is definitely typical of a
 tropical cyclone instead of a subtropical system with moderate
 convection wrapping around the center, and a well defined
 upper-level outflow in the eastern semicircle. A blend of the
 satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and CIMMS SATCON still
 support an initial intensity of 40 kt. A recent ASCAT pass suggest
 that this estimate could be generous. Debby is already moving over
 cooler waters, so a gradual weakening is anticipated before the
 system becomes extratropical and then gets absorbed by a larger
 trough. In fact, most of the reliable global models degenerate Debby
 into a trough of low pressure on Thursday.
 
 The initial motion is toward the northeast or 035 degrees at 10 kt.
 The cyclone is embedded within a mid-latitude trough, and will
 continue to move on this general northeastward track with some
 increase in forward speed in tandem with the trough until
 dissipation. The track models are in pretty good agreement on this
 solution.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  08/1500Z 41.2N  48.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  09/0000Z 42.4N  47.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  09/1200Z 44.2N  44.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  10/0000Z 46.5N  39.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila