WTNT44 KNHC 080231
Subtropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 07 2018
A little bit of deep convection has developed near the center of
Debby, but the overall cloud pattern still resembles more of a
subtropical cyclone. Most of the convection is in a ragged band
well to the northeast of the center. The initial intensity is held
at 35 kt based on a subtropical ST2.5 classification from TAFB.
The global models are in good agreement that the system will open
up into a trough on the southern side of a large low pressure
system within 48 hours.
The initial motion estimate is a slightly slower 360/11 kt. Debby
is likely to turn northeastward in the flow on the eastern side of
a mid-level trough. The official forecast is somewhat faster than
the latest model consensus to maintain some continuity with the
previous NHC track.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0300Z 40.3N 49.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 41.2N 48.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 42.5N 47.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 43.9N 44.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
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