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 542 
 WTNT44 KNHC 080231
 TCDAT4
 
 Subtropical Storm Debby Discussion Number   3
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018
 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 07 2018
 
 A little bit of deep convection has developed near the center of
 Debby, but the overall cloud pattern still resembles more of a
 subtropical cyclone.  Most of the convection is in a ragged band
 well to the northeast of the center.  The initial intensity is held
 at 35 kt based on a subtropical ST2.5 classification from TAFB.
 The global models are in good agreement that the system will open
 up into a trough on the southern side of a large low pressure
 system within 48 hours.
 
 The initial motion estimate is a slightly slower 360/11 kt.  Debby
 is likely to turn northeastward in the flow on the eastern side of
 a mid-level trough.  The official forecast is somewhat faster than
 the latest model consensus to maintain some continuity with the
 previous NHC track.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  08/0300Z 40.3N  49.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  08/1200Z 41.2N  48.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  09/0000Z 42.5N  47.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  09/1200Z 43.9N  44.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  10/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch
 
 
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